How to make your own moneylines in MLB

 How to make money in MLB

There are many options to help you create your own moneylines in order to handicap Major League Baseball games. Complex mathematical calculations can be used to determine the worth of every player and create a projection. Old-school sharps are familiar enough with market trends and teams to be able to calculate a number from their gut, and then compare it to the board.

Accepting that this isn’t basketball or football is the first hurdle. Everything in these sports is measured in points. For these sports, the teams score points on the court and on the field to determine who wins. Bettors can take a shot at the point differential that sportsbooks set. Everybody speaks the exact same language. Are the Cowboys three more points ahead of the Giants? You can place your bet. You will place your wager.

The Yankees are not trying to win the Rays' money with baseball. What does it entail to say that New York will beat Tampa Bay with a buck fifty?

Fortunately, there is an alternative. Although dollars and runs don't have the same language, they communicate very well with win percents.

• A favorite of -200 must win 67% to break even.

• A -175 favourite must win 64% of the times to break even.

• A favorite of -150 has to win 60% to break even.

The -125 favourite must win 56% of all the lines to break even. To calculate the win percentage, divide the moneyline that you are seeing by 100. Once you learn the basics, it's simple. Use a calculator. What's the breakeven win percentage for -132 Divide 132 times 232 and you'll get.569 or 57%. What is the breakeven win percentage for -16? Divide 164 times 264 to get.621, 62%. Once you hit the divide sign, mentally multiply 100 by the number. Kershaw is calling up a minor league call-up for Padres. What is the breakeven point for -360 Divide 360 times 460 to get.782, or 78%. Kershaw is not a good bet if you don't believe the Dodgers will win this game 80% of times.

We know how to make a moneyline turn into a win%. How can we make runs a win percentage? There are many complicated ways to accomplish this. One simple method to get very close is the Pythagorean project created by Bill James (inspiration for sports analytics). This formula transforms runs into a win percent, which is perfect for our purposes.

Pythagorean formula: Runs squared divided by sum of runs and opposition runs squared. This is easier to understand if you can give me an example.

Let's suppose you project the favorite to win 5-4. With your mathematical calculations for each team, you arrive at a 5-4 win for the favorite. You get 25 over the sum 25 plus 16. It is 5 squared divided with the sum 5 squared and 4squared. Final result: 25 divided by 41.

As 25 divided by41 is.609756, your projected 5-4 win project now to a no-vigorish winning percentage of.610. You can see that this is over -150 at the money line, which is about -156.

You can express both runs and betting odds as win percentages, even though they don't score "dollars & cents".

Let's play another. Your imaginary game is located in Arlington so you are getting a higher total score. Your projection for the favorite is 6-4. That's 36 divided the sum 36 and 16, which is 36 divided 52, which is.69230. It's within the range of -225 for the moneyline.

As a time saver, a spreadsheet is a huge help. It is unlikely that any serious effort in projecting scores will result in a lot of numbers. Projections of 4.7 to 3.0, 4.1 to 3.6, or perhaps 6.5 to 5.5 depending on how Colorado's elevation is adjusted, will be available. You can make precise run predictions using a spreadsheet and then convert them into win percentage projections you can compare to the moneyline.

I know. It's a fairly simple method. This sounds like the tedious work of doing homework seven days per week. You could also try juggling balls on a unicycle while you do math. The cutting-edge math of baseball is much more complex. It involves models, algorithms, weather conditions, and even exponents. If you are betting on baseball, you are joining an elite company. You can make smarter decisions by knowing how to set up your own moneyline. You can avoid the mistakes you have made in the past by doing it correctly. Are You Ready to Win This Baseball Season? 4 Baseball Betting Tips to Help You Make Money