Cracking the Horse Racing Code

 Cracking the Horse Racing Code

Yes, I have been absent for quite some time. I was claiming that I had something valuable up my sleeves, but it hasn't been ready to be translated ..... - until now.

My research into horse racing has been ongoing for months. While it wasn't research to find great horses or jockeys and trainers (although that was an inevitable side effect), or to have a better understanding and respect for the traditions, another glorious side effect, it has been to accurately predict horse races and determine the odds of each horse coming first. So, I approached horse racing using a gambler's eyes, a microscope and a Daily Racing Form. I also used a calculator to determine how accurate I could predict the outcome of each horse race.

I understand how this could lead to the end of horse racing. The tracks won't be able make any money if they don't have enough to run races. The sport may collapse. The sport doesn't have far to fall. Name the jockey who rode last year's Kentucky Derby winner. Name the Kentucky Derby Champion Horse. Precisely. Street Sense may not care that you don't recall him, but Calvin Borel shouldn't be offended. The Triple Crown is what gets people talking. A terrible accident like Barbaro cannot get people to recall a horse. If the betting public takes an interest in horse racing ......making profit, the sport will see a revival. Was the MIT Blackjack team able to destroy cards? It didn't. Actually, there was a resurgence of the game in the years following the MIT blackjack team. This can happen in horse racing too. It doesn't require a Triple Crown winner. It is enough to believe that they are smarter and more capable of winning. It is possible to make money in advertising and TV ratings. People will pay attention to people who think they have an advantage over the house. If the system begins to lose, those in charge will alter it. The house was always built to win. Horse racing will work well, particularly if there is a casual audience. They will always make their rake. It takes a formula that consistently produces winners. It is possible to pick horses more accurately than looking at the odds in the morning. This would give people a great advantage. Now I am ready to start.

My research was based on academic journals. Curiously, many scholars have been so fascinated by the sport and mathematics involved that they have published their own work on the subject. Ruth N. Bolton (and Randall G. Chapman) published "Searching for Positive Returns on the Track: a Multinominal Logit model for handicapping horse races". This book provided the information necessary to help me complete the project. Bolton and Chapman set about to identify the most critical variables to be considered when evaluating the horses and predicting the outcome. According to research, the two most important variables in evaluating horses in a race were the "average amount earned per race in the current calendar year" and the "average speed rating of the last four races". Although the second two variables were significant, "lifetime win rate" was not as important. Surprisingly, jockeys' post positions and weight were not considered important. The best jockeys often were placed on the best horses and their correlation negated much their value. Poker Code Crack Review - Does This Horse Betting Strategy Really Work?