How to beat the bookies and turn their odds against you
Do you fancy a chance to win? There are very few chances that you will make a profit betting on football matches. However, three researchers managed to overcome these odds using a simple formula.
While mathematicalians have developed models for betting on sports matches that try to predict their outcome, these models are hard to construct and don't always work consistently. Lisandro Kaunitz, University of Tokyo, and his associates wanted to see if a direct approach would work. They used the odds against them.
The 10 year history of nearly half a,000,000 football matches was examined by the team. They also looked at the associated odds offered to them by 32 bookmakers from January 2005 through June 2015. The team looked at each game for odds that would yield a higher return than what was offered by bookies, such as 5 to 1, versus 2 to 1.
Javier Kreiner (a data scientist at CargoX in Sao Paulo Brazil), says, "Using the odds published, it is possible to get a very accurate estimate of an event." "How likely are Barcelona and Real Madrid to win, for example?"
Bookies think that 2 to 1 is a fair chance of the outcome. However, 5 to 1, which is the best return rate for a winning outcome, offers better returns. The historical data was used by the team to determine the optimal distance between the mean odds and the one that would pay the highest payout for the most number of games.
Their strategy returned 3.5 per cent when applied in a simulation. The loss from placing random bets was 3.32 percentage.
Into real time
The team decided to take the plunge and start real betting. Their odds-averaging method was applied to the upcoming matches using an online tool. Kaunitz's wife and a member of his team would then email Kaunitz to place a bet when the opportunity presented itself. They continued this for five months, placing $50 wagers about 30 times per week.
They were winning. Five months later, the team had made $957.50 profit - an 8.5% return. There were some administrative costs such as running servers to track the odds in realtime. Kaunitz says his wife and he were able to go to Tokyo for a nice dinner. It was exciting, but you have to put in a lot of effort to make it happen.
However, their streak was short lived. The trio discovered that they had limited their betting options after a few small wins. They could only wager $1.25.
William Hill, one the bookmakers that the team uses, stated that sometimes betting is restricted "in a limited number of cases".
"This could be due to a variety of reasons, including bonus misuse and taking proportionately greater than their fair shares of special offers or enhanced prices which are designed for many rather than one," he said.
Mark Griffiths from Nottingham Trent University in the UK says that players who show an edge over house have been banned from gambling for a long time. One classic example is card counting, which may help blackjack players win. This is often considered cheating by casinos, who quickly expel anyone caught doing it. However, it isn't illegal in the US or UK.
Robot trapping
Griffiths compares Griffiths team's approach in card-counting. "It is not cheating at any point - it's using math to try and beat certain systems," he states.
Online bookmakers often have very low profit margins so they offer high odds on specific matches for very short periods of times to attract expert or automated betting systems. "They will try and trap the robots," says he. "Anyone who answers has their account shut down."
It is possible that some accounts of the researchers were harmed by this system. They found that some of their accounts were not able to bet even after signing up with certain bookies. If this is true, it means that they were able to find the best odds. However, the house always wins in the end. Do You Know the Easy Way of Betting Opportunities on Football Matches?
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