You can't flop
After the flop has been dealt you will now know five of the seven cards. This is the point where you can get a good idea of what will happen. What is your hand's connection to the flop? This is the key question. You will be able to identify the right strategy.
Ideal situations are when you hold what is called a "made hand". A "made hand" refers to a combination that is guaranteed to win. Before you can identify the winning combination, you must first read the board and examine the odds.
The following examples will show you how to choose the best flop combination for your hand.
An over-pair means a pair of pocket cards with a higher rank that any of the community card. A hand in which the rank or rank of your pair exceeds that of any cards on the table is an over-pair.
While a flop that has all three cards below your pocket pairs is good, you must remember that you have not yet made the pot. With a 85% chance of winning, the pocket pair is still the favorite (i.e. Q-Q against A-10, flop J-5-2. Aside from two over-cards, the pair is still the favorite with a 73% edge (i.e. Q-Q vs. A-K, flop J-5-2).
It is much more advantageous to play against an opponent who has a superior pair. You might have pair of Aces and your opponent has pair of Kings. The board is J-5-2. Your opponent still holds two favored cards with two more to go. You can also bet that your opponent will think he holds the stronger hand and end up losing (or winning) more.
Your opponent will be the favorite if he hits two pairs on flop. This gives him a 73% chance at winning. There is a 27% improvement chance with an over-pair and a three of one kind.
If your opponent draws a three of one kind, your chances of over-pair success are slim at 10.51% vs. 89.49%.
Flopping the top pair
A top pair can be formed from a combination of a pocket and highest ranking cards on the board.
If you have a decent kicker, a top pair will usually be a strong hand. 82% of the pot is won by a top pair who has a good kicker than a bottom pair with a weaker kicker. You might have Q-J in the hand and your opponent has 10-J. The board is J-5-2. Your Queen-the kicker increases your chances of winning.
91% favor a top pair over a smaller pair, i.e. Q-J vs. board 8-8, J-5-2 This is an exceptional situation. A top pair against a second pair will leave you a winner 78% the time, even if your opponent has a stronger kicker (i.e. Q-J against A-5, flops J-5-2
Holding a top pair against an under-pair, two or three of a type is dangerous. There are respectively 18%-17% and 1,6% chances that you will win the pot. When your opponent is suddenly betting big, it is important to be cautious when holding a top-pair. Sometimes, just one pair is enough. odds of two pair on the flop
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