Fade The Public' A Sports Betting Strategy: Science Or Myth

 Fade The Public' A Sports Betting Strategy: Science Or Myth

If you've ever listened to sports TV/radio/podcast conversations between media members with an interest betting, chances are you've heard some of these discussions, especially since regulated gambling has picked up speed in recent years.

"All bets have been placed on the Packers. Everyone is on the same side. There is something fishy about this, because it's so one-sided. The Vikings will be covering, you know that.

"Yep. When the public is all going one direction, you must place bets against them."

"For sure. Just look at the enormous casinos in Vegas. They wouldn’t be able keep building them if the public wasn’t on the right side all the time.

For many games, there's no clear "public” side. An objective of a sportsbook is often to reach a 50-50 betting split in order to guarantee profit, no matter who wins. It is common for a game to land at 51% of bets one direction and 49% in the other.

Sometimes, though, the bets are split 75-25. Or 80-20. Or even 90-10. Anecdotally a sports radio host may have five guests during a week and they all enjoy the same team. That's when "fade to the public" becomes a popular betting strategy.

Does it work? It is possible to win big or even make money by playing against the majority. Or are the lines drawn such that most people lose more often than they win?

The BS alarm sounds

"It isn't a complete myth. There are winners. There are some winning subsets, but media members and casual gamblers think it works. Brad Feinberg is a serious bettor, and NBC Sports Philadelphia's resident casino expert. "Let us take the Packers example. The host said that everyone was taking Green Bay this season, and that if Green Bay doesn’t cover, the host will say, "Yep. Another case where the public is taking a position, I knew it couldn't win."

"But let’s say that next week, Dallas is on the team and he said, 'Oh everyone's betting against Dallas, be scared.' Dallas won the game by three touchdowns. It won't even be mentioned in the next episode. Or he might forget about it. Then, when an opportunity presents itself, he will be like "Remember Green Bay?"

"It's selective Memory, that's certain. The market works well. People would make money if it was easy to do so.

A former bookmaker Dave Sharapan has a stronger take than Feinberg.

Sharapan explained to US Bets that "In short: I think it is bulls-t." "It's more a myth than anything. The public' -- who's this guy? Your public' might differ from mine.

"Yes. Back in the day, information was available to the public. But, now? No. The public has closed that gap, so the information is readily available to everyone. The public cannot be ignored. The public can win too! If the public was always losing, there wouldn't be any business. Fading the public is not a recipe of success. It's more mythical than anything. But it's still fun to talk and it sure is entertaining.

The trick is to be able to distinguish between people who just want to talk about it and those who actually have the data. This is an example of a real sentence we found on the Internet (from a tout website that we prefer to not link to). Are Betting Systems Good Or Bad?